I’ve never been to YDW before; what are my chances of getting in during the lottery?

Based on unequivocal results from our 2012 registration survey (90% of respondents said it was important that newcomers be able to attend YDW) we decided that parties which include at least one newcomer should receive preference during the lottery. We’re still working out the system details, but our goal is to come up with a method that will result in a roughly 40%-60% split between newcomers and veterans.